Indexes

Three weekly indexes for the materials economy underneath AI.

Each index cuts the strategic-resource market at a different angle. We publish the constituent materials and the thesis behind each cut. Exact weights, proxies for materials without spot markets, and the calculation kernel are proprietary editorial judgment of the desk. Institutional licensing on request.

TAI · Tantalum AI Materials Index

What does the AI buildout physically require? TAI tracks the inputs whose supply must scale or AI infrastructure breaks. Composed of two sub-indices: materials (the things you mine) and power (the electricity that runs them). Weighted 75% materials, 25% power.

105.7

+2.72% vs prior week

YTD +8.2%

TAI is a composite of two sub-indices, published separately. 75% TAI-M (materials) + 25% TAI-P (power).

TAI-M · AI Materials

+1.9%

101.8

YTD +6.4%

Pure mineral exposure to the materials AI infrastructure requires. Power inputs deliberately excluded so the signal stays clean.

Constituents

Conductors & magnets Copper

Conductors & magnets Rare earth basket (NdPr, Dy, Tb)

Conductors & magnets Niobium

Semiconductors & lithography Gallium

Semiconductors & lithography Germanium

Semiconductors & lithography Helium

Battery storage Lithium carbonate

TAI-P · AI Power

+1.2%

104.2

YTD +13.6%

Electricity for AI infrastructure. Nuclear is the leading-edge story (hyperscaler PPAs with Constellation, Talen, Oklo, NuScale). Utility equity and gas are tracked as supporting signals.

Constituents

Nuclear Uranium

Nuclear Nuclear utility equity

Utility equity US utility sector

Gas (residual) Natural gas (Henry Hub)

SOV50 · Sovereignty 50 CONCENTRATION-EXPOSURE INDEX

SOV50 has two readings. The price-style index value (base 100, currently 118.9) tracks the asset returns of materials with concentrated supply, showing how the market is pricing concentration premium. The HHI concentration score (separately published) measures the actual supply concentration severity of the basket, derived from USGS country-level production data. Use the price index for market reads; use the HHI for underlying structural-risk reads.

122.4

+2.09% vs prior week

YTD +14.6%

Concentration Score (HHI) Extremely concentrated

0.68

0.00 = perfectly distributed across producers. 1.00 = single-country monopoly. DOJ classifies HHI > 0.25 as highly concentrated for antitrust purposes; supply-chain literature treats > 0.50 as extreme.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (last published Jan 2025)

Per-material HHI breakdown

Rare earths 0.52 China ~70%

Niobium 0.82 Brazil ~90%

Gallium 0.9 China ~95%

Germanium 0.4 China ~60%

Cobalt 0.51 DRC ~70%

Graphite (anode) 0.51 China ~70%

Tungsten 0.65 China ~80%

Antimony 0.31 China ~50%

Magnesium 0.73 China ~85%

Constituents

Rare earths China ~70% highest

Niobium Brazil ~90% highest

Gallium China ~95% highest

Germanium China ~60% high

Cobalt DRC ~70% high

Graphite (anode) China ~70% high

Tungsten China ~80% high

Antimony China ~50% moderate

Magnesium China ~85% moderate

SDX · Southern Diversification Index THESIS INDEX

SDX is the solution side of the SOV50 question. Tracks the alternative supply base for AI-relevant materials outside the China + DRC nexus: Brazil, the Lithium Triangle, the African Copperbelt, plus selective Australian and Angolan producers. Equity-weighted exposure to the producers absorbing Western capital seeking to diversify processing dependence.

98.2

+1.66% vs prior week

YTD -3.9%

Constituents

Brazil VALE Iron ore, copper, nickel

Brazil Niobium (CBMM, private) Editorial proxy

Brazil Sigma Lithium Hard-rock lithium

Chile SQM Lithium brine

Chile Antofagasta Copper

Argentina Arcadium (Allkem+Livent) Lithium brine

DRC Glencore Copper, cobalt

Australia Pilbara Minerals Lithium spodumene

Angola Pensana (Longonjo) Rare earths

Mozambique Syrah Resources Graphite

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