Brazil's new ten-year energy plan budgets 3.7 GW for big loads. The data center queue alone is 26.2 GW.

Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy opened public consultation on 8 October on the Synthesis Report of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2036, prepared with the Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) and covering supply and demand from 2027 to 2036 [MME, 8 October 2026]. The plan says the spread of artificial intelligence requires far more computing and energy infrastructure than conventional digital services [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese, 8 October 2026], and it puts a number on how much of that demand the state will plan for. The number is small next to the line of developers waiting for a grid connection.

This is the sequel to our piece on Brazil’s 26.2 GW data center connection queue. That piece asked how much of the queue the costed transmission could physically connect. This one asks how much of it the official plan believes.

What’s happening

• The plan’s data center line. EPE groups large data centers, electrolytic hydrogen and electric mobility into a category it calls large loads. Their consumption rises from 4 TWh in 2026 to 47 TWh in 2036, and EPE says most of that growth comes from data centers, which tend to seek direct connection to the high-voltage basic network [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese, 8 October 2026]. The plan’s chart puts data centers at about 3 TWh in 2026 and about 30 TWh in 2036, a tenfold rise.
• The power figure. In its nuclear box, the plan says large loads tied to data centers, electrolytic hydrogen and other electro-intensive projects “can reach about 3.7 GW in 2036” [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese]. Spread across a year, 30 TWh is an average draw of about 3.4 GW (desk arithmetic). The two figures are consistent.
• The queue. Data center projects in the process of connecting to the basic network totalled 26.2 GW at the end of 2025, according to EPE data, a volume that represents interest, not contracted capacity [Cenário Energia, 3 September 2026]. A separate EPE prospective study found 30 projects in the Northeast with combined demand estimated at 8.3 GW by 2038 [Cenário Energia, 3 September 2026].
• The gap. EPE’s 3.7 GW for all large loads in 2036, hydrogen included, is about 14 percent of the data center queue alone (desk arithmetic). That is roughly one gigawatt planned for every seven requested. The comparison sets a planning estimate against a stock of requests, so it measures the planner’s belief, not the outcome.
• Where it lands. EPE expects the Southeast/Center-West subsystem to receive more than 65 percent of new large data center investment, the Northeast almost 30 percent and the South the remaining 5 percent. It credits the Northeast’s subsea fiber landing points and renewable generation [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese].

The materials order the plan does write

Transmission spending follows planned load, not the queue: EPE says its reference transmission scenario is aligned with the plan’s load and generation projections. The PDE puts transmission investment at R$ 127.1 billion between 2027 and 2036, adding 31.9 thousand km of line circuits and 99.6 thousand MVA of transformation capacity [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese]. In the reference scenario, R$ 79.6 billion goes to lines and R$ 47.5 billion to substations. The pessimistic case, R$ 72.8 billion, is only projects already granted.

The plan also counts its own minerals. Critical and strategic minerals embedded in installed generation rise from about 1.1 million tonnes in 2026 to 1.7 million tonnes in 2036. Copper rises 48 percent, silicon 69 percent and rare earths about 40 percent, the last mainly from permanent magnets in wind turbines. Steel and aluminium in the transmission grid rise from about 6.4 million to 7.6 million tonnes [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese]. That accounting covers generation, transmission and electric vehicle batteries. It has no line for the data center buildings themselves: their transformers, busbars, switchgear and cooling plant.

One equipment signal is already in the text. EPE reports rising costs across the gas turbine chain, from equipment and parts to EPC and maintenance. Among the causes it names is demand for generating equipment to serve data center expansion, and it says the increase was already reflected in the LRCAP 2026 capacity auction [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese]. Part of the global data center bill for turbines is already landing in Brazilian capacity auctions.

Brazil angle

Brazil is not underbuilding by accident. Building ahead of the queue can open capacity for new projects, but it also risks underused infrastructure if a large part of the expected load does not advance [Cenário Energia, 3 September 2026]. Before construction, projects still have to clear economic viability, transmission availability, telecoms, licensing and connection guarantees [Cenário Energia, 3 September 2026]. The plan sizes to 3.7 GW and lets those filters do the rest. The Redata regime, now Lei 15.504/2026, adds a water condition: a data center qualifies only if cooling uses 0.05 litres of water per kWh or less [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese]. The plan also expects indirect liquid cooling to spread as high-density servers outgrow air cooling.

The plan also opens the nuclear door for this load. It says firm, continuous, low-carbon supply is gaining relevance for data centers and hydrogen. It notes that two technical groups, GT-19 and GT-20, were formalized in 2026 to propose a National Nuclear Strategy decree and to assess the infrastructure for small modular and micro reactors [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese]. That is a study track, not a purchase.

US angle

The United States is financing firm capacity directly. On 30 September, Constellation and Amazon announced a 20-year agreement for 690 MW from Calvert Cliffs in Maryland, including a roughly 190 MW uprate due between 2030 and 2032 and more than US$ 3 billion of plant investment [Constellation, 30 September 2026]. In a report published on 4 October, a person familiar with the matter said the US would lend Vistra about US$ 4.2 billion to uprate at least three of its four nuclear stations [Mining.com, 4 October 2026]. The US model contracts or finances firm megawatts first. Brazil’s plan waits for load to prove itself.

China angle

China shows what building generation ahead of use looks like. By the end of July its installed solar capacity had passed coal, 1,300 GW against 1,285 GW, yet coal still produced 2.5 trillion kWh, 49.7 percent of generation, in the first half of 2026 because solar runs at lower utilization [Caixin, 1 October 2026]. Capacity on the books and energy delivered are different numbers, and Brazil’s planners are counting energy.

Chile and copper

The copper behind Brazil’s plan comes from a market whose largest producer is wobbling. More than 700 workers walked out at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine on 7 October after mediation failed, the mine’s first strike. Centinela produced 240,400 tonnes of copper last year [Mining.com, 7 October 2026]. LME three-month copper stood at US$ 14,405.50 a tonne that morning, up about 16 percent this year [Mining.com, 7 October 2026]. GEM Mining Consulting’s new index puts an average 5.2 percent of output at Chile’s largest copper mines at risk. It also says Chile produced 9.3 percent less copper from January through July than a year earlier [Mining.com, 8 October 2026].

What it means

The PDE turns Brazil’s data center boom into an official planning number, and the number is conservative on purpose. Large data centers reach about 30 TWh in 2036. That is about 3 percent of the plan’s 979 TWh of total consumption and about a tenth of all consumption growth over the decade (desk arithmetic). For materials, the binding instrument is the R$ 127.1 billion transmission budget and its 99.6 thousand MVA of transformation capacity, built around a load path with about 3.7 GW of large loads. If the queue converts at more than one in seven, the gap shows up as transformer orders and copper demand on top of the plan, in a copper market where Chile is already losing output.

What to watch

1. 6 November: consultation closes. Contributions are open until 6 November through the MME portal and Brasil Participativo [MME, 8 October 2026]. Watch whether hyperscalers or the data center lobby file for a higher large-load case.
2. The ten thematic notebooks. The MME says ten cadernos will follow “in the coming weeks”, including Energy Demand and Electricity Transmission [MME, 8 October 2026]. The demand notebook is where the 3 TWh to 30 TWh path gets its assumptions. The transmission notebook is where the MVA gets its locations.
3. December 2026: Brazil’s first battery capacity auction. The PDE calls the first capacity reserve auction for battery storage, scheduled for December 2026, an important milestone [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese]. Storage is the largest firming item in the plan’s reference scenario: 9.2 GW of batteries and pumped hydro out of 19.6 GW of new technologies indicated for capacity adequacy [EPE, PDE 2036 Relatório Síntese]. Batteries change the materials mix from steel and copper toward lithium and power electronics.